When in Doubt, Zoom Out

In This Issue:

• High regulatory costs limit California farmers’ ability to expand specialty crop production.
• Financial stress continues to build for Midwestern field crop and hog producers.
• The rapid increase in farming costs is forcing a business mentality shift.

April 2025 felt like a year's worth of work. Our time was consumed by tracking tariff announcements, the volatile movements of U.S. Treasuries, and their impacts on agriculture. While detailed research on these topics is crucial, it can sometimes create a narrow perspective of the state of the agricultural economy.

This Spring 2025 edition of the Rural Economist aims to embrace the philosophy of “when in doubt, zoom out.” There are three overarching themes that will persist in the background as agriculture navigates political developments.

The Impact of California’s Regulations on Specialty Crop Production

The Trump administration and others are focused on reducing the U.S. trade deficit. However, a look at California, which accounts for more than 20% of U.S. agricultural exports, shows how efforts to rebalance trade are buffeted by rising regulatory and labor costs. Read more.

The Building Stress on Field Crop and Hog Producers

Cattle producers are seeing a record-high ratio of prices received over input costs. Meanwhile, crop growers and hog producers are on the low end of the see-saw, with depressed market prices and rising costs. The future belongs to those who can best navigate these inverse extremes of the agricultural cycle. Read more.

The Changing Funding Structure in Rural America

Just when farmers and ranchers may be more reliant on financing, agricultural bankers are reporting shrinking funds available for loans due to declining deposits and the rising cost of farming. Read more.